(Three minutes read)
Question: What does a failing General Election campaign by Britain’s (about-no-longer-to-be) ruling Conservative Party have in common with a failing Euro-Election campaign by France’s Presidential Minority?
Answer: Everything.
From the back end of last year, a succession of serious players each made clear to M. le Président that an invitation to lead his list in the EU Elections was an offer they could refuse.
Finally, a name emerged.
Valérie Hayer was an undistinguished Euro-MP for five years. But after Stéphane Sejourné was summoned to the Quai d’Orsay, Hayer replaced him as leader of the centrist ‘Renew Europe’ group. In this Parliament they were the 3rd largest group of Euro-MPs, with members from nearly every EU country, and France providing a quarter of the group. From there, ’twas a small step to Hayer’s investiture as lead candidate for Macron’s list of modest Euro-worthies.
When Hayer was nominated (29 February), Macron’s list trailed way behind Bardella’s National Rally in every poll.
The ultra-Right polled 30%+. Any possible leader of Macron’s list was given 19% support, at best. Since then, things have gone still worse.
Every poll over the last week finds suport for Bardella’s ultra-Right at 32%+. However the President’s list is supported by less than half that, a short head ahead of the (semi-)resurgent Socialists.
Initially, Hayer had the excuse of absence of name recognition. But while The Boys In The Elysée Palace are doubtless preparing to blame her personally for a thoroughly lacklustre campaign, matters were worsened by a series of unfortunate events.
Last week, credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s produced their (long-waited) downgrading of France’s cherished credit rating, dropping from AA to AA-.
With especially unhelpful timing, Macron was about to enjoy the first State Visit to Germany by a French President for 24 years. [Vive la différence note: Germany’s credit rating remains AAA].
The unhappy news simply reminded voters of the still-undefined €20 billion public expenditure cuts ahead. However Finance Minister Le Maire was keener on downplaying S&P‘s credit rating news, contextualising it for all to understand. French schools don’t believe in anglo-saxon gradings involving letters. Since 1890, French school-work has been marked out of 20. Le Maire reassured us that France’s credit was still ‘very good’ and it was really no more than if ‘we have gone from 18 out of 20, to 17’.
An alternative way of describing the bigger picture might have been pointing out that such AA- allows France the proud boast that it’s viewed by S&P as the credit rating equal of no less than both Slovenia and the Czech Republic.
Eat your heart out, Germany.
Non-anglophone fellow-citoyen·ne·s have had a toughish time of late. First, forced to comprehend credit rating annotation, then presented with a range of American-import language after Prime Minister Attal lent (just a bit more than moral) support to beleaguered Mme Hayer.
This Monday we were just six days ahead of further proof emerging of the long-term effects of President Macron’s attempted destruction of France’s traditional political Right and Left, combined with his own doubling down on his ever-more ‘conservative’ policies, and his reinforcement of a normalisation of the far-Right.
At 08:30 last Monday, Valérie Hayer was on public radio’s FranceInfo. Several hundred young people were selflessly sacrificing a morning to sit through interviews of a dozen political leaders.
Enter Attal Stage Left.
A beaming Prime Minister, in the building for another interview, burst on the scene, microphone in hand.
‘Good morning. Sorry I’m just barging in on the stage. I’ve come to see Valérie. We’re spending a lot of time together right now … people said it was really important I come and say a few words to you, and support Valérie’.
And then, complete with horribly exaggerated smile (broader than Hayer’s utter embarrassment), Attal was off for several minutes, encouraging the young to vote in Sunday’s Euro-Elections, taking the time allotted to Hayer’s party interview.
Attal paused when the interviewers asked whether his constant presence at Hayer’s side meant he was ‘worried’. His smart debating reply: ‘I am worried about Europe’.
Immediately, Hayer became the centre of a political maelstrom, with every political party accusing Attal of being a male chauvinist, for walking all over women, and for doing everything to render his female candidate near-invisible. Attal was further attacked – and here non-anglophones needed the glossaries the media provided – for ‘mansplaining’ and ‘manterrupting’.
Hayer’s later online response about her delight at receiving the Premier’s support, commenting that ‘real sexism is believing you can think for me’ was a worthy debating point. However, by then, the circus had long moved on.
You can’t keep a good President down
Macron was not content with being at the centre of every possible media opportunity, alongside British and American Royalty (and no less a giant of British politics than Lord Cameron) for yesterday’s 80th anniversary of the Normandy Landings.
He got himself interviewed on last night’s prime-time news of both main channels. He spoke of the D-Day Landings, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a ceasefire in Gaza … and Sunday’s Euro-Elections. Appealing for people to vote, he warned of the dangers of a sufficiently large ultra-Right bloc being elected across several large countries such that Europe no longer functions effectively. But he refused to be drawn on the consequences of his party suffering a major defeat by Le Pen’s ultra-Right.
The usual responses were employed as he whistled, Presidentially, in the dark:
- ‘I don’t believe in opinion polls, I only believe in elections.’ [Not long now, M. Le Président, before there’s proof a-plenty of what we already know]
- asked to respond to Le Pen’s demand that he dissolve Parliament and call Legislative Elections if her National Rally wins on Sunday, he replied gnomically: ‘I will go and vote. Then, Sunday evening, we will learn the results. I like to do things in the right order.’
In advance of this (somewhat) unprecendented Presidential intervention three days before Election day, every Party leader dutifully condemned his (ab)use of Presidential powers to command the airwaves.
But Marine Le Pen commented appropriately: ‘The more Emmanuel Macron speaks, the more he stirs people up to vote for our list’ which reminded me of a Le Monde article some days ago: election workers were happy at seeing Attal’s picture on their new election leaflets instead of Macron’s, with someone commenting that leaflets with Macron’s image couldn’t be handed out. Perhaps apochryphal, but surely not far from the truth.
President Macron has lost the room: no one is listening any more.
Période de réserve
From midnight tonight until 8pm on Sunday, no more politicking. No more opinion polls.
The Constitutional Council holds that this ‘guarantees the election’s fairness and avoids exerting pressure on voters’. You can tell people who you intend voting for, but cannot urge anyone to vote any particular way.
As a novelty, here’s my forecast:
- Le Pen’s National Rally – 34%
- Macron’s Presidential Minority – 14.5%
- Socialists – 14.5%
- Hard Left – 8.5%
- Trad. Right – 7%
- Greens – 6%
- Ultra-Right Racists – 5.5%
See you Sunday.
French politics today 
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