Day 98 – Macron and An Overview

Emmanuel Macron

thoughtful left critique as well as this report  are both good reads for a real flavour of this so-unconventional candidate. Macron has defied every possible rule of French traditional politics. He is still under 40. He has created a Party which will advertise online for people to stand as MPs in June’s Parliamentary Elections. It’s centrist ‘Third Way’ Clinton/Blair/Schroder economics decades on. Vigorously pro-EU and possibly an almost unheard-of-these-days federalist, he proudly claims to have the only pro-European movement in France. This Presidential Election will be the first time he will have stood for political office. Publicly, unlike many Socialists, he supported Merkel’s welcoming of immigrants. He has condemned the Socialists’ endless renewal of France’s State of Emergency.

State of the Candidates

Both major traditional Parties have selected a candidate (Fillon for the Right, Hamon for the Left) that swathes of their traditional voters reject intellectually, emotionally and politically. So far neither of them seems likely to gain much support outside their traditional ranks. Macron now appears on equal footing with Fillon (around 21%) in most polls. Hence the importance of that 1st round vote.

But out front in every poll week after week after week is still Marine Le Pen (Front National). She consistently gets 25%+ in the 1st round polls. Don’t worry, she is predicted to lose heavily in every 2nd round poll – incidentally polling worse against Macron than Fillon. I would worry if it turned out to be Fillon v Le Pen in the 2nd round.

I was very struck by the report from a conservative American polling organisation: it considered it was getting unreliable data by asking how people would vote in the U.S. Presidential Election. The polling organisation said they thought they were obtaining more reliable, honest information by asking voters not how they intended to vote, but rather how they thought their neighbour would vote. The responses produced far higher figures for Trump. Does ‘shy Tory’ equal ‘reticent LePenist’?

4 thoughts on “Day 98 – Macron and An Overview

  1. Excellent and informative Post. This seems to be the year of the ‘ON’ in France (Macron, Fillon, Hamon, Melenchon….).
    Macron’s progress to the second round, and probably to climb the podium into top spot if pitted against Marine, seems less and less unlikely as the polling days approach.

    His biggest problem, should he triumph, and as alluded to in the Post, will be the absence of a solid parliamentary base for support. President Trump may experience the same difficulties as time goes on, as he has the Parliamentary base, but not necessarily the support. Unless of course he can find a rapprochement with the Republican mainstream.

    Macron may well advertise for MP”s on the internet, but if the feedback from internet dating sites are to believed (and I DO NOT speak from personal experience) the results may be disappointing. However there may be no shortage of deserting MP’s from right and left ready to leap aboard a Macron lifeboat

    Affaire à suivre

    Like

    1. Thanks for your comment.
      Macron has let it be known that erstwhile Socialist arriviste MPs (not sure (m)any will be coming from the Républicains Right) cannot expect to be guaranteed a safe haven/seat.
      Interesting to see how the burgeoning Macron/Ségolène Royal political love affair will pan out. She really is a heavyweight: is she actually going to leave the Socialist Party?
      And how long does the Socialist Mayor of Lyon, Collomb, get to keep his Party card now that he is a leading Macronista.
      ON verra.

      Like

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