Yes. I know. I said these blog-posts would appear every 3 days. But I have to admit it: I’m seriously worried. It’s easy – especially in the febrile atmosphere that’s the current state of my mind – to get worked up over one opinion poll, but this one seems important.
An internet poll was conducted 18-20 Feb by ELABE for Express/BFM TV (1000 people). Voting intentions were asked depending whether centrist Bayrou did/didn’t stand. [If true to his word, we’ll at last be out of our semi-interested misery tomorrow.]
Their first round poll (compared to their last poll figures ten days ago) shows Le Pen climbing to 27-28% (+2), Fillon up to 20-21% (+3) and Macron dropping to 17-18.5% (-5), with Hamon/Melenchon both out of it at 12-13%. In Round 2 Fillon defeats Le Pen 56 – 44% (Men being 50-50 between the 2, but Women supporting Fillon by 62-38%).
So why am I worried? ELABE could be a rogue poll. Two polls (IfopFiducial & OpinionWay interview a new 500 daily – which are added to the results from the previous two days) still show Le Pen at 26% and Macron/Fillon level on either 19% or 21%. Neither of those other polls has detected any strengthening in Le Pen’s 1st round vote, nor a drop in Macron’s.
What makes me think ‘something may be up’ are answers to various other questions:
- a third of those polled by ELABE did not say how they would vote in a Le Pen v Fillon run-off
- compared to a week ago, the subjects that will most count with OpinionWay voters in deciding how to vote remain Employment (53%), Social Protection (45%) and Purchasing Power (44%); BUT Terrorism is now 38% (+1), Law and Order 36% (+3) and Immigration (32%)(+5)
- 84% of OpinionWay voters polled think the campaign is of bad/very bad quality
- although a drop in Macron’s vote hasn’t been identified by OpinionWay only 32% now think he will be President compared to 40% some days ago; while 21% would like to see Le Pen as President – higher than for any other candidate.
- Fillon’s voters are almost as certain to vote for him as are Le Pen’s for her; while Macron’s vote remains totally flaky.
- more Macron troubles: his budgetary/fiscal programme was promised for last week, then tomorrow, it’ll now be available Friday; as Le Monde said ‘Waiting for Godot”.
This may be the start of Something Really Bad.
Days, days, days
For anyone counting, apologies for a small snafu regarding my ‘Days till the Election’. Hopefully now corrected.