Day 23 (part 2) – That ‘Publish’ key was pressed too early

Maybe it really is perm any 2 from 4 after all

Ipsos Sopra Steria polled 1509 people (12-13 April) for Le Monde, produced the following:

Le Pen (22%), Macron (22%), Mélenchon 20% Fillon (19%).

This is clearly all well within the margin of polling error. [Le Pen promises are said to be 85% certain, Macron 68% certain, Mélenchon 66% certain and Fillon 80% certain.]

Only two-thirds of the French intend to vote in Round 1. Potential abstainers were asked what was the main reason for their intended abstention. 44% said: ‘Politicians have disappointed me too much and I don’t believe in them any more’. 19% said ‘No candidates’ programme seems really convincing’ and 15% ‘Whatever the result of the Election, it won’t change anything’.

Round 2 polling:

  • Macron beats each of Le Pen (37%), Fillon (36%) and Mélenchon (45%)
  • Le Pen loses to each of Macron, Fillon and Mélenchon
  • Mélenchon beats Le Pen (40%) and Fillon (40%), but not Macron
  • Fillon beats Le Pen (44%), but not Macron or Mélenchon

Those refusing to say what they would do in Round 2:

  • Macron v Le Pen 24%
  • Macron v Fillon 37%
  • Macron v Mélenchon 39%
  • Fillon v Le Pen 39%
  • Mélenchon v Le Pen 28%
  • Mélenchon v Fillon 30%

Could hardly be more unpredictable: it’s all up for grabs.

Lastly: ‘If elected President, would France’s situation improve, worsen or neither?

  • Mélenchon – 27% improve, 41% worsen, 32% neither
  • Macron – 25% improve, 34% worsen, 41% neither
  • Le Pen – 24% improve, 57% worsen, 19% neither
  • Fillon – 18% improve, 52% worsen, 30% neither






3 thoughts on “Day 23 (part 2) – That ‘Publish’ key was pressed too early

  1. Many thanks Richard for yet another fascinating and thorough review of the ever changing state of play. Interesting statistics right at the end of the blog where it seems that those polled think that the state of France will worsen regardless of which of the ‘Big 4’ is elected. Maybe we should just keep Hollande :))

    Liked by 1 person

  2. ‘With Macron we will’ (Discuss)
    Also there’s another strange ‘glitch’ in the poll which I have no means of understanding nor of working out whether it actually impacts on how people might vote.
    The last page of the poll details shows (if I’ve understood it correctly) that 81% of Mélenchon ‘voters’ think the state of France will improve if he’s elected President, 82% of Le Pen ‘voters’ think her election would improve France, and 85% of Fillon ‘voters’ are upbeat about their man. BUT ‘only’ 76% of Macron voters are positive about their man’s effect.
    Does this say anything about Macronistas ‘objectivity’, their un-persuadedness of his ability … or are all the differrences so minute that’s it’s an utter waste of time trying to draw any conclusions beyond the fact tha


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