Day 14 – Round 1 (part 1)

Voter turnout good at midday

At midday, 28.54% of the electorate had voted. That is marginally higher than 2012’s midday tally of 28.29% (the final turnout reached 79.48% in 2012). The next official announcement on turnout will be made at 17:00.

In fact today’s is the highest midday turnout (apart from 31% in 2007) over the last 7 Presidential Elections – in ’95 it was down at 23% and in the First Le Pen Disaster of 2002 as low as 21.4%.

This ‘should be’ good news: a high turnout – if all the analyses are correct – ought to mean that Le Pen’s support is more diluted and she should therefore receive a lower overall percentage of the vote. If those analyses are indeed correct.

When will the result be announced?

Nothing can be published about results from those polling stations which close at 19:00 (ie everywhere other than large cities) before 8pm – at the risk of a serious fine. In the  past some ‘rumours’ of results were published online in Belgium and Switzerland. Because of the additional hour’s voting (until 19:00) the possibility of leaks is thought to be reduced.

The polling organisations do not do exit polls. Kantar Sofres and Ipsos (who work, respectively, with TF1 and France 2) initially use information derived from the first 200 votes that have been actually counted in a number of polling stations, and thereafter add each set of 200 votes when counted.

 

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