Latest forecast Round 1 results
- Sofres: Macron 23.8%, Le Pen 21.7%, Fillon 19.8%, Mélenchon 19.2%
- Ipsos: Macron 23.7%, Le Pen 21.9%, Fillon 19.7%, Mélenchon 19.2%
The big victors of the night: Ipsos, who got it almost spot on at 8pm this evening, while Sofres said it was neck and neck between Macron and Le Pen.
The big victors of the Election polls: virtually every single pollster who almost universally got it remarkably right over the last few days saying mostly that Macron and Le Pen were both ahead of the others, with Macron just ahead.
Round 2 Opinion Polls (yes – they’ve started already)
- Ipsos: Macron 62% Le Pen 38%
- Harris: Macron 64% Le Pen 36%
Grand Old Parties
In the end, it appears that the Socialist Party and the conservative Right (in its multiple forms over the years) will barely total 26%. The worst-ever score of these 2 Grand Old Parties in 10 Presidential Elections under the 5th Republic.
Macron (youngest ever candidate in Round 2)
Macron spoke in front of a tricolore and the European flag: both galore in the audience.
‘The people of France have spoken. I want to be the President of all the people of France, patriots facing the threat of the nationalists … The challenge is to break with the old system … In one year we have changed the face of French political life.’
Macron called for support for ‘The renewal of our political life, the security of the French people, radical reform of both our education system and our society and a relaunch of European reconstruction … There are not several Frances, there is but one, ours, the France of patriots, in a Europe which protects us and which we have to rebuild’.
Everyone’s interested to know what his Party will recommend and what Mélenchon will personally recommend for Round 2.
[Mélenchon’s first tweet about 75 minutes after the polls closed was to say that he/they didn’t accept the forecast results and urged that great care be taken with the figures and his campaign manager tweeted about ‘very strong uncertainties’ in the alleged results.]
It now appears likely that Mélenchon will end up 4th – the latest estimate from ‘deeply untrustworthy polling organisations’ [personal blogger’s editorial comment] are above.
No Mélenchon recommendation until the Ministry of the Interior gives the official figures: ‘When they are issued, we will respect them’. [Ever the democrat]
Juppé Tweets … while Sarkozy Stays Stum
Juppé: I will vote Macron ‘without hesitation’ and I urge the French to do the same.
Sarkozy: Silence tonight! Not a word. Nothing.
She expressed ‘Profound gratitude to the patriotic French voters’. She condemned ‘unlimited globalisation’ and ‘mass immigration’. She condemned Macron as the ‘heir to Hollande’ and said she wanted to bring together all ‘patriots’.
She called on the French to ‘choose France. Either we continue on the road towards total deregulation, jobs relocated, mass immigration, free movement of terrorists, the reign of King Money. Or you choose France with frontiers which protect our identity. It’s a choice of a true alternative Government, a real choice, that I am offering, fundamental change which will put new faces in power.
Le Pen said: ‘I am the candidate of the people. I launch an appeal to all the French people … because the survival of France is at stake.’
Le Pen’s N° 2 (and Svengali) Philipot said ‘there are many more than 50% of patriots in France … The French people will have noted that the Banks and media are behind you [Macron], but that will not prevent the French people choosing their candidate for the 2nd round.’
Trot Poutou and Trot Authier.
- Poutou: No recommendation as to how people should vote.
- Authier: Do not vote for Le Pen. I will cast a blank ballot … We will not be part of a ‘republican front’ which extends from the Fillonist Right to the Socialists
Républicain Young Turk (and Baron) Wauquiez
No recommendation as to how to vote. I care about the unity of the Républicains. We want to do well in the Parliamentary Elections. I will ask people not to vote for Le Pen. They will either abstain or vote Macron.
The CP’s General Sec. – after congratulating Mélenchon on his great electoral breakthrough – said that ‘there is only one way to beat Le Pen and there is only one ballot paper to use … but that’s not support for Macron’s programme that we have to oppose’.