A good summary from the BBC
Five things we have learned from Round 1
8 clever maps from Bloomberg
Well worth a glance at what you can do with some money … and they really DO have some money (plus clever folk too)
Great. Now the French get to be snooty about their polling
An article from the Washington Post explaining how the French polls got it so right
[The idea for all the above 3 links have been nicked from the always-readable Dave Pell’s Next Draft: well-written, punny and funny, usually commentary from the American press on Matters American from the ‘right’ perspective (for me), with lots on Trump]
- SEVEN MILLION SIX HUNDRED AND SEVENTY NINE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED AND NINETY THREE (that’s 7, 679, 493) people voted Le Pen.
- The idea that Le Pen would be one of the top 2 candidates was so utterly expected that it was only a relief that she wasn’t the winner.
- In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen got 16.9% in the 1st round; 10 years later his daughter got 17.9%; now she got 21.4% … much less than had seemed possible earlier when she was polling 30%, but that’s small consolation
- On the basis of the votes cast on Sunday, Le Pen led in 216 of the 566 Parliamentary constituencies; she won 25-30% of the vote in 105 constituencies, and 30%+ in 83 constituencies; few FN candidates have her standing of course, but there could still be 100 Front National MPs in the next Parliament (says Le Monde)
- A new Twitter hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai: it possibly started as a Mélenchonite attempt to explain their extraordinary inability to separate Le Pen and Macron; it’s being pushed by RT (formerly Russia Today) which charmingly applauds those brave Mélenchonites who refuse to choose between Macron’s ‘neo-liberal fascism’ and Le Pen’s ‘fascism’ and will abstain in the 2nd Round
- 2 days on, Mélenchon still can’t distinguish between Le Pen and Macron: he’s currently consulting his 440,000 members voting on (i) spoil ballot (ii) vote Macron (iii) abstain. Result Friday. BUT what % will take option (iv): vote Le Pen? 20%?
- 10.2 million people didn’t vote: way more than those 8.65 Macron voters
- An unashamedly pro-EU candidate won the 1st round, despite so many Euro-sceptic (even Euro-phobic) opponents
- In recent years the Front National presented themselves as France’s leading Party, following Euro/Region/Department Elections; that’s true no longer
- The Républicain Mayor of Tourcoing tweeted to his fellow conservatives: ‘Imagine General de Gaulle abstaining when against Pétain?’
- 56 French communes gave ZERO votes to Le Pen: here’s a report (in French) about Samaran, in the Gers, none of whose 88 inhabitants voted Le Pen
- ‘A man nobody knew, a very young man [has won] … this is incredibly American, this is absolutely not French … That proves that France in a way, this evening, is less of a monarchy and more a democracy.’ (Duhamel, Sciences Po Paris University)
- ‘We shouldn’t underestimate the capacity of resistance of other groups … which support more moderate parties … I think Macron’s success … indicates there are still very powerful forces in French society … [that] don’t want to go towards populist parties and really xenophobic positions,” (Dieckhoff, CEVIPOF Sciences Po)
News that each of you will work out from your individual perspectives as to its badness, goodness or utter indifferentness
- For the first time since universal direct suffrage was introduced (1962) no candidate from the centre-Right will be in the 2nd round
- In 2012, the Socialists had total political power in France: President, PM, Parliament, Senate, the vast majority of Regions and large towns. Last Sunday, Hamon got 6.3%, 5th place and Mélenchon even got more votes in Trappes, where Hamon’s the MP
- With loadsa luck and cunning (‘There’s Clausewitz, Sun Tzu and Macron’ said Fauré, Socialist Parliamentary President) a 39-year-old, utterly unknown 3 years ago, can get to the Presidential run-off … in France … IN FRANCE!
- ‘After 5 years of President Hollande, the Socialist Party doesn’t exist any more and the FN’s in the 2nd round of the Presidential Election. What a great outcome.’ (Anonymous Socialist MP)
- After his surprise crushing victory in the Républicains Primary, Fillon was at 32% in the polls, the Left was utterly divided and Presidential victory was near-guaranteed. On Sunday he got 150,000 more votes than Mélenchon and 2.5 million less votes than Sarkozy in 2012’s Round 1 (‘[Fillon] transformed an unlosable Election into an unwinnable one’ said Hortefeux, ex-Minister)
- Mélenchon went from 2012’s 11.1% to 19.6% (three times more than Hamon) BUT … he’d persuaded himself (and his starry-eyed followers) that he’d be in the 2nd Round; banks had been approached for a loan and venues identified for meetings
- Sarkozy is said to be announcing his vote for Macron: will it be a ‘personal vote’ or will he call on his Party’s supporters so to vote as well?
- Paris has never been so far away from the rest of France: Macron got 35% of the vote (11 points above his national score), while Le Pen got 4.99% (16.5 points below her national average)
Ifop-Fiducial Macron 61% – Le Pen 39%
A bit less than half of Fillon/Mélenchon voters will support Macron; a quarter of Fillon voters will vote Le Pen as will 19% of Mélenchon voters.