Day 8 – It (definitely) ain’t over. The gap is narrowing.

Opinion polls

  • Macron 59% Le Pen 41% (BVA 26-28 April 1500 people)
  • Macron 59% Le Pen 41% (Odoxa 26-27 April 1000)
  • Macron 60% Le Pen 40% (OpinionWay rolling 26-28 April 1600)
  • Macron 60% Le Pen 40% (Ifop rolling 26-28 April 1600)
  • Some BVA poll details:
  • Turnout of 73-78% estimated – unlikely to surpass Round 1
  • 18% of Mélenchon voters will vote Le Pen and 41% will not vote (BVA)
  • 26% of Fillon voters will vote Le Pen and 33% will not vote (BVA)
  • 15% of voters who say they will ‘participate’ in Round 2 might not vote for anyone
  • 27% of Macron voters will vote for him because of his policies, 30% as a default, and 31% to vote against Le Pen
  • 30% of all voters want Le Pen to win + 17% don’t care about the result
  • Half of all voters disapprove of Macron’s and Le Pen’s ‘attitudes’ since Sunday (c. 60% of Fillon voters, c. 65% of Mélenchon voters). Punchline: 60% of all voters disapprove of Mélenchon’s attitude. So that all means nothing at all.
  • 31% will definitely and 32% will probably watch the Presidential debate on 3 May
  • Image – Pleasant (Macron 50% Le Pen 33%), Represents renewal in politics (M 48% LP 36%), Honest (M 40% LP 27%), Defend your values well (M 27% LP 36%), Brings answers to your worries (M 26% LP 36%), Close to people like you (M 22% LP 33%)
  • Odoxa poll: ‘Actually, only 47% of potential electors have definitely chosen to vote for Macron with 33% for Le Pen … the others are still hesitating between the two or a blank ballot paper’ so ‘the gap can still considerably narrow
  • Odoxa: Macron lost 4 percentage points in one day over the Whirlpool fiasco – very few saw his (semi-positive) meeting with the Whirlpool workers … while 80% saw Le Pen being cheered and Macron being jeered

Ten days is a longer time in politics than a week

Dupont-Aignan at his last public meeting (19 April) before the Election, vigorously rejected rumours that he intended to call for a vote for the FN in the 2nd Round. ‘People caricature us. We have never been xenophobes. They’re smearing us.’ We reject ‘zero immigration … which makes no sense’. We must not be ‘opposed to the poor whatever their origins … or their religious convictions’.

Previously Dupont-Aignan had rejected the FN’s ‘politics of the scapegoat’ (9 March). And still earlier had said: ‘A republican Gaullist is not the same thing as a member of the Front National. And that’s that’ (18 February). Yet further back in time (3 November) he called on the French not to ‘yield to the dead-end that is the Front National … to the adventure of jumping without a parachute … I am the only person who is offering a total change, but calmly. I am a Gaullist. In my view, the FN do not have the right solutions: they are the best ally of the current system.’

Better even than calling for a vote for Le Pen, which he did yesterday, it was today announced at a joint Press Conference with Le Pen that he will be her Prime Minister if she is President. Dupont-Aignan described this as an ‘historic day … We are putting the interests of France above partisan interests … we will reassemble French political life.’

Le Pen said that they had ‘agreed a common text taking account of elements that were essential’ for Dupont-Aignan such as his fight to help disabled people. He said that the changes to her programme were a pre-condition for his support.

Loud are the accusations of ‘treachery’ from all over the centre-right Républicain Party at Dupont-Aignan’s coup de théâtre: people seem most shocked that a man who self-describes as a Gaullist could sully the name of de Gaulle by taking the Le Pen shilling (or is it maybe somewhat more?)

Juppé (he’s back again … and in seriously Cassandra-esque guise)

His blog is headed ‘NON !‘ (in French)

He writes: ‘It’s a recipe for disaster for France. What appeared impossible a short time ago is today no longer improbable: Mme Le Pen can become French President. At the very least the Front National score in Round 2 can exceed 40%, even 45%, which would be a political thunderbolt.

The betrayal of N. Dupont-Aignant [misspelt in Juppé’s original], the ambiguous attitude of J-L Mélenchon, the collapse of the Socialist Party and the game-playing of some of my political “friends” adds to the general confusion on which the FN prospers.

The victory of the extreme right in France would be a geopolitical earthquake. The European Union – which can withstand, even benefit from, a Brexit – will not survive a Frexit … That’s why I am solemnly calling on every French person to resist the temptation to smash everything, to turn everything upside down.

In an Election with only two candidates, if you want to eliminate one person, there’s no solution apart from voting for the other. Abstention or a blank ballot paper helps Mme Le Pen … I therefore implore you, my dear compatriots, to vote for E. Macron on May 7 so that France can avoid the tragedy of the FN.

I am asking for nothing. I am waiting for nothing. I am not looking for someone to place me somewhere. I will not be President of the Republic. I will not become Prime Minister again. I will not be a Minister. It’s for those in their Thirties and Forties to take over. My only ambition is to help them.’

He’s barking mad at the Front National

Artist Sagazan is demonstrating his opposition to the FN for 3 hours at La Défense today. Scroll down a bit. Not so much Dada more WaouhWaouh.

Out on the streets

Macronistas yesterday. Macronistas today.

Panic Time?

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