Day 5 – Pre-Debate Jitters: so much hangs on this

Le Pen: plagiarist and Euro-equivocator

‘Marine Le Pen is very popular in rural France, in mid-size cities, among workers and employees’ (Prof. Alduy, Stanford Univ.) ‘But there are still concerns about the true nature of the [Front National], people doubt that it has truly changed’. Just think how many will vote Le Pen when the Front National finally changes its name?

In case you haven’t seen the excellent mash-up on Ridicule TV (a Fillon-supporting You Tube phenomenon) of Fillon’s speech, as adopted by Le Pen, it’s above … and Le Pen’s so proud of it.

Le Pen’s campaign manager commented: ‘I think this little wink was appreciated, including by supporters of Mr Fillon’. [There’s far too much winking – see earlier comments on Macron’s speech – Day 6 … and this was rather more than a ‘little wink’]

I said yesterday that this week Le Pen would be trawling for Fillon votes: yet verbatim plagiarism is certainly going about it far more straightforwardly than I had expected.

But. In out in out shake the Euro all about is a bit more difficult to follow:I

  • [Saturday] ‘the timetable will adapt to the immediate priorities and challenges facing the French Government’. Leaving the Euro ‘is not a prerequisite for all economic policy’ (Le Pen)
  • [Sunday] ‘the Euro’s dead … Should we wait for chaos [or] financial panic? Should we get together with other countries to get out of an experiment that’s failed?’ (Le Pen)
  • [Monday] ‘we’re going to negotiate’ [with Brussels for 6-10 months] (Le Pen)

Two-thirds of Mélenchon’s Members say Non à Macron

The consultation of the Party membership has concluded. Some 243,000 of La France Insoumise‘s members replied to the question as to what they intended to do on Sunday: 36% said they’d spoil their ballot, 35% will vote for Macron and 29% will abstain. And the 15% who will vote Le Pen: where are they in all this?

‘Spoiling your ballot or abstaining is a way of saying ‘No’ to the Front National, while also saying that the Macron option is undesirable for the country’ explained Girard, co-director of La France Insoumise‘s programme

A tired old Ultra-Right animal-lover is anti-Macron [Bears/Woods/Defecation]

‘I am not proud of what France is today. I am against living together. But I’m not a fascist, no more than Marine Le Pen (sic)’ said Brigitte Bardot in January.

Today, she invited ‘those who love and respect animals not to vote Macron’ who has ‘taken the side of breeders and hunters’. Headlined with the rhyming Si Macron passe, les animaux trépassent (If Macron succeeds, animals will die), she warned us of ‘[Macron’s] total lack of empathy as evidenced by the froideur of his steely blue expression’.

Some pro-Macron voices who spoke out today

  • L’Académie des sciences
  • La Fondation de la Résistance
  • La Fondation pour la Mémoire de la Déportation
  • La Fondation de la France Libre
  • Le Comité national de liaison des harkis [Algerian Muslims who fought in the French Army during the Algerian War]
  • L’Association des maires ruraux de France
  • Yanis Varoufakis (Seriously Socialist Greek ex-Finance Minister – ‘Emanuel wanted to save Greece’)
  • Christiane Taubira (French Socialist ex-Justice Minister – vote Macron ‘to avoid a crippling threat to our liberties and our laws’)
  • Sigmar Gabriel (Minister of Foreign Affairs, Germany – ‘Macron offers a new start for Europe’ – this endorsement will go down a treat with Le Pen)
  • La Croix (Catholic daily newspaper – only once before expressed a preference (2002) – but does so again ‘because too many politicians have adopted a sybilline position’)
  • ‘Believing the 7th May choice to be between two equally execrable candidates … comes either from blindness or bad faith.’ (Courtois, Le Monde editorialist)

‘TV Debate’ or ‘Monaco v Juventus’?

Both of tomorrow’s big clashes could have big repercussions – I’ll concentrate on the former. Starting at 21:00, it’ll last 2 hours 20 mins. Le Pen (on the left of our screens) will speak first and Macron will have the last word. Originally planned with 2 male interviewers, it’s finally 1 man, 1 woman. 10 major themes should be addressed.

BFMTV reported today that Macron had threatened to walk out of the debate after 30 minutes if he was going to be ‘the Front National candidate’s punchbag’. This report was initially denied categorically by Macron’s team. Later, they said that there’d been ‘a misunderstanding over an exchange’.

Le Pen jumped straight in, tweeting: ‘If Mr Macron feels ill at ease, he can always ask Francois Hollande to come and hold his hand. I won’t object to that.’

Parliamentary Elections

Those with good memories will remember the name Baroin (one of the Républicain Party’s barons – or maybe Young Turks? An Undeniably Hard Man).

He would initially have been Sarkozy’s PM had Sarko made it. He then effortlessly transferred into the role of Fillon’s PM … but (alas for him) voters messed things up a 2nd time and snatched away that prize. Third time lucky now: Baroin’s holding out the threat/promise to Macron that he’ll be his PM (since there’s no vacancy with Le Pen?)

Baroin’s just been designated by the Républicains to lead their campaign in June’s Parliamentary Elections: doesn’t bode well for a non-majority-winning Macron.

Opinion Polls

  • Macron 59.5% Le Pen 40.5% (IfopFiducial 1500 voters 28/04 – 2/05)
  • Macron 59% Le Pen 41% (Elabe 3800 voters 28/04 – 2/05)
  • IfopFiducial:
  • 30% of Fillon voters and 13% of Mélenchon voters will vote Le Pen
  • 56% believe Macron will win; 41% want Macron to win
  • Elabe:
  • 18% of people asked say they are certain or almost certain to vote but won’t say who they’ll vote for
  • 68% are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote and 12% ‘almost certain’ (ie 9 out of 10 ‘certain’)
  • Who has the qualities to be President? Macron 54% Le Pen 36%
  • Who really wants to change things? Macron 41% Le Pen 50% [People want CHANGE!]
  • Who better understands people like you? Macron 45% Le Pen 44%

Out on the Streets

What might be the subliminal effect of being N° 1? Might this lead to a further bout of over-confidence?

How was this numbering decided? I have no idea. I think we should be told.

20170502_131717.jpg

Who can read confectionery runes?

Caramel Carambar, Vichy [sic] pastilles, Poulain chocs, Malabar chewing-gum and La pie qui chante sweeties today escaped the grinding yoke of American ownership and are once again, each and all of them, helping to Make France Great Again by being thoroughly and totally French.

 

 

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