Day 3 – Memo to Self: Must try to understand how President, Government and Parliament interact when there’s no majority for the President’s Party

Sounds as if we should worry about Article 16 of the French Constitution

A question regularly posed: what happens if Macron wins, but fails to get a majority in June’s Parliamentary Elections. What can a President do on his (OR HER) own?

There’s a useful preliminary guide to the situation, on the BBC’s World at One, by Emiliano Grossman (Science Po University, Paris): it’s at 26:05, with a background piece about Macron just before it at 21:05 that’s rather good as well.

You’ll see why that Article 16 is really rather scary.

That Debate

For those who want to go back over some of it, here in full technicolour (and in French) are the NINETEEN untruths Le Pen told last night – didn’t do Trump any harm.

Someone needs to start thinking about this soon

Still an issue.

The Mairie de Paris has refused the Macronistas request for the Champ de Mars (behind the Eiffel Tower) because the IOC will be visiting the Champ de Mars the following week in the context of the Paris bid for the 2024 Olympics … and that might just be a few too many feet on the grass but a week earlier.

Place de la Concorde is a no-no (too right wing) as is the Place de la Bastille (too left wing). The Place de la Bataille de Stalingrad is also thought to be inappropriate. Somewhere, surely, there’s a [Goldilocks] Place for us, which is neither too right nor too left but just … in the middle?

Opinion Polls

Both tracker polls out today (OpinionWay and IfopFiducial) – with, remember, only a third of the punters being polled today – show Macron rising 1 point to 61% with Le Pen at 39%. Could this be the start of the Debate Effect?

Will some Mélenchon voters react to this by pulling back from voting for Macron for ‘fear’ of giving him too large a majority? Or is it a given, after last night’s frightening performance, that all right-thinking-people now accept that Le Pen should be given the smallest possible percentage vote?

One poll (which I ignored) – referred to by Christine Ockrent in the World at One interview above – forecast that En Marche would get very close to an overall majority, with a small handful seats for both the Front National and Mélenchon’s Insoumises. Seemed too bizarre for words and seriously lacking in credibility.

Tomorrow will probably give us a raft of the very final polls before Election Day and the formal end to the Election Campaign.

2 thoughts on “Day 3 – Memo to Self: Must try to understand how President, Government and Parliament interact when there’s no majority for the President’s Party

  1. I was wondering in light of the 19 ‘untruths’ voiced by Mme Le Pen, whether anyone had tallied the ‘alternative facts’ trotted out by Macron. (I have the distinct advantage of being in the UK and only heard a tiny fraction of the debate as I was otherwise engaged). Eg I thought I heard him say the the UK MUST pay between 60 and 80 million euros to leave the EU. The implication being that this is some sort of penalty, to counter the idea of Frexit being a viable option. This amount may or may not materialise, but it is by no means certain. In any event, if it really does reflect firm commitments (which personally I doubt, as I doubt the figure in the way in which it is presented), the UK would have had to pay whatever sum it is anyway, even while remaining a member. So no additional cost.

    This election still has some ‘legs’ in it I fear, but I cannot believe that Macron can lose from here. famous last words of course, and we are certainly not out of the woods.

    Like

  2. Chris.
    Let me give you the introduction to the ‘Le Monde’ 2 page coverage of ‘The nineteen lies of Marine Le Pen’:
    ‘On Wednesday 3rd May, Marine Le Pen smashed to pieces every rule of republican debate. Beginning with the very first: respect for the truth. The rhetoric, developed over 2 and a half hours by the extreme Right candidate depended on a series of approximations, factual errors and untruths, all of a magnitude unheard of in France.
    It’s not our place here to exonerate Emmanuel Macron: he did occasionally make some inaccurate statements, on unemployment in Europe or the academic level of Primary school leavers. But these errors were nothing like the deliberate strategy of Mme Le Pen, who built up false assertions so as to drown her opponent and prevent a serious debate by forcing him to reply to attacks, often lies, and which were a reminder of Donald Trump during the American campaign.
    ‘Le Monde’ is publishing nineteen of these intox [false information] identified during the debate. This list is not exhaustive.’

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s