Chronicle of a Victory Foretold

Despite (because of?) the highest abstention rate in the history of the 5th Republic – it’s estimated at 51.2% – it appears that President Macron will, next Sunday, obtain the largest overall National Assembly majority in the history of the 5th Republic.

The forecasts (taking together TF1 and France 2) are that the National Assembly could well divide up as follows:

  • LREM (President’s party) 390 – 440
  • Républicains: 85 – 120 (the smallest number of Députés from the Right since 1958)
  • Socialists/Greens: 15 – 35 (the smallest number of Socialists for over a century)
  • France Insoumise/CP: 10 – 20 (Mélenchon may fail even to be the largest Left Party)
  • Front National: 3 – 10
  • Others: 5 – 10

In virtually every constituency there will be a run-off next Sunday between the top 2 candidates: the huge abstention rate makes it statistically most unlikely that many 3rd candidates will attain the threshold of 12.5% of all registered voters.

The leader of each Party has appeared on TV this evening regretting the low turnout. Every Party (other than LREM) has called on those who have abstained to do their civic duty next Sunday and deny the President his huge forecast overall majority. Le Pen – who may well be elected next Sunday (she got some 45% today) – predictably called on ‘patriots’ to turn out for the Front National candidates.

Républicains and Socialists alike recognise that their respective Parties have tonight been effectively destroyed: The Future for each starts in 8 days. One of the first things the Socialists will probably have to do is flog off their lovely rue de Solferino headquarters.

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