Smaller tsunami than forecast … The Nation had second thoughts

Abstention

It’s probably as high as 57% (Historic All-Time High) which will have contributed to the over-estimation (by the opinion polls) of the LREM success. This after several rounds of voting when the polls were spot on.

Probable Parliament

  • LREM/MoDem 350+
  • The Right 135+
  • The Left 45+ [Socialists 33 – historic all time low]
  • Hard Left/CP 25+ (France Insoumise 16 / CP 10)
  • FN 8
  • Others 10 (including 3 Corsican Nationalists)

The nation looked over the precipice and decided it didn’t want to give President Macron a wholly overwhelming victory. So, while LREM voters basked in the sunshine of their pre-announced victory, others went to vote, saved the other parties from extinction … and left a lot of people who’d made grandiose forecasts (including me) looking silly(ish).

Some quotes

Mélenchon: ‘I advise the Government that not a single metre of social legislation will be given up without struggle … The crushing level of abstention has a major political significance: the French people have carried out a civic general strike’.

Pécresse (Républicain – boss of Ile de France Region): ‘It’s not a defeat, it’s the end of an era … Our candidates were beaten because we seemed more attached to the France of yesterday, rather than tomorrow, everything needs to be changed.’

Le Pen: ‘Facing a bloc which represents the interests of the oligarchy, we are the only resistance … We will be the megaphone of those millions of French people attached to their history, their nation … the grandeur of national identity and French civilisation.’

Out on the streets

Mme Pouzyreff (LREM) 58% M Morange (sitting Député, Républicain) 42%

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