Smaller tsunami than forecast … The Nation had second thoughts

Abstention It’s probably as high as 57% (Historic All-Time High) which will have contributed to the over-estimation (by the opinion polls) of the LREM success. This after several rounds of voting when the polls were spot on. Probable Parliament LREM/MoDem 350+ The Right 135+ The Left 45+ [Socialists 33 – historic all time low] Hard Left/CP 25+ (France Insoumise 16 / CP 10) FN 8 … Continue reading Smaller tsunami than forecast … The Nation had second thoughts

Within a very few days French politics will be profoundly different. And then comes the difficult bit.

Random numbers 1 – just one triangulaire with 3 candidates in Sunday’s run-off election (34 in 2012) 2 – every 2nd voter … didn’t vote. Since 2002 – and the creation of the 5 year Presidency with Legislative Elections straight after the Presidential – the abstention level has accelerated:  2002 36%; 2007 40%; 2012 43%; 2017 51.3% 3 – an element tarnishing Macron’s horizon is that … Continue reading Within a very few days French politics will be profoundly different. And then comes the difficult bit.

Chronicle of a Victory Foretold

Despite (because of?) the highest abstention rate in the history of the 5th Republic – it’s estimated at 51.2% – it appears that President Macron will, next Sunday, obtain the largest overall National Assembly majority in the history of the 5th Republic. The forecasts (taking together TF1 and France 2) are that the National Assembly could well divide up as follows: LREM (President’s party) 390 – … Continue reading Chronicle of a Victory Foretold